In Maharashtra, it was an unusual spectacle to see the governor recommend President’s Rule when chief minister Prithviraj Chavan of the Congress put in his papers after long-term ally NCP withdrew support to his government.
And it was with unseemly hurry that the Centre accepted the governor’s recommendation. Evidently, the BJP is keen that the Assembly election on October 15 is held under Central rule. Perhaps party strategists believe that they’ll be able to influence the course of events in such a scenario.
When the chief minister submitted his resignation, just over a fortnight remained for the polls. Ordinarily, any governor would have asked the incumbent CM to continue in a caretaker capacity. But this seems to be a big ask these days when dictates of political partisanship tend to trump long-held democratic traditions and canons of propriety.
It is clear as day that the BJP is likely to have a stronger suit if the election is fought under President’s Rule. In the event, an extra burden falls on the Election Commission to ensure that the entire poll process, including the counting, remains above reproach.
If we look at the sequence of events, the NCP pulled the rug from under the Congress’ feet right after the BJP and Shiv Sena parted ways, as if on cue.
Even before this happened, the buzz in Mumbai was that the NCP and BJP had a sub rosa understanding. If that indeed is the case, it will be no surprise if these two parties had worked out the President’s Rule scheme prior to effecting their divorce with their respective partners.
In the event of a four-cornered contest for Assembly seats — indeed, the players will come from five corners since the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena of Raj Thackeray has also announced its intention to contest 200 seats of the total 288 — it is highly probable that a party that wins around 20 per cent of the votes polled can emerge the winner.
This is akin to the situation that had prevailed in Uttar Pradesh for some years. The present situation in Maharashtra is naturally marked with uncertainty, although the BJP may be fancying its chances since its bull run that swept it to power in New Delhi.
Since then, the party has lost a string of Assembly byelections in a number of states, and with it some of its élan. But it may be too soon to write off its chances as a prominent player after its rupture with the Shiv Sena.
If the suspicion about the NCP and BJP having a secret tieup spreads, then the Congress, otherwise facing an incumbency of 15 years, could seek to mop up minority votes. But the situation remains unclear.
